Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has got something to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
